The general topic is the following: based on the attached two International Monetary Fund documents related to the Economic Outlook, published in October 2014, you are asked to select a particular country from the MENA region or from other regions and assess its macroeconomic performance in recent years and comment on the forecasts of the main economic variables for 2015. Use Excel graphs and eventually other presentation tools in order to illustrate the performance (You will find useful statistical annexes at the end of each document).
The detailed questions to be addressed in your report are as follows:
1. GDP growth in constant prices in recent years and projections for 2015: first define real GDP and its growth, then analyze and illustrate graphically the growth trend and use relevant group or groups countries for comparison. What is your overall conclusion for the growth performance and prospects for the selected country?
2. Assess the unemployment situation in the selected country: define the unemployment rate, illustrate graphically and analyze trends in unemployment. Based on graphical illustration, do you notice any relationship between GDP growth and the rate of unemployment? Is unemployment too high or too low compared to other countries?
2. Inflation: How does the report measure inflation and what is the meaning of the indicator? Illustrate graphically and comment on changes in the inflation rate for the country you have selected. Do you consider inflation to be too high or too low in that country (by reference to relevant comparisons. What do you think would be the risks if the level of inflation recorded in the country persists in the future?
3. Government budget deficit: How is the deficit measured and what is its meaning? Illustrate graphically and assess trends in the deficit of the country you have selected. Is the country running large or small deficits? What are the implications for that country’s indebtedness?
4. If the selected country is an oil-exporting country, define and analyze its price of oil breaking point and assess the risks for the budget deficit in light of the recent drop in world oil prices
5. Current account deficit: define and provide the meaning of the current account deficit. Analyze changes in the deficit for the selected country, illustrate graphically and assess its sustainability. Based on this assessment, what risks do you see for the country’s economy?
6. Conclusion: Provide an overall assessment of the macroeconomic performance and prospects for the selected country.
It is recommended that you to consult in particular:
The attached IMF Reports,
• the weekly magazine “The Economist”,
• the daily “Financial Times”
• The “Wall Street Journal”.
• “Project Syndicate” publishes also good analytical articles.
• The use of the following CUD databases and links are well encouraged:
• The Economist – access through Pro Quest Central
• Financial Times – open access https://www.ft.com/home/uk
• Wall Street Journal – access through Pro Quest Central
• Project Syndicate – access through Pro Quest Central
• Economics, Management & Financial Markets- access through Business Source Complete (EBSCO), Full Text:03/01/2009 To 2015
• Economics & Management – access through Business Source Complete (EBSCO)
• Full Text:08/01/2007 To 2014
• Economist Economics – access through Business Source Complete (EBSCO)
• Full Text:01/01/2006